The so-called Doomsday study, published in 1960 in the journal Science by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team, calculated the end of humanity for Friday 13 November 2026.
The researchers fitted a growth curve to historical world population data over two millennia and found that intervals between each population doubling kept getting shorter. Projecting that growth rate unchanged into the future, the curve would reach an infinite value in November 2026, leading the mathematicians to conclude humanity would "crush" itself through overpopulation.
The study caused a worldwide stir and was intended to draw attention to overpopulation by focusing on a Friday the 13th. Up to the early 1990s the curve matched actual figures surprisingly well, but global population growth then slowed significantly.
The fastest population growth was in 1963, at more than two per cent a year, while by 2020 it had fallen to under one per cent. United Nations estimates project the world population will peak in the mid 2080s at around 10.3 billion before slowly shrinking.
The article recalls other failed predictions, including 1910 panic over Halley's Comet, a US radio preacher's Last Judgement forecast for 21 May 2011, and the 21 December 2012 Mayan calendar date. It also cites the 1972 study "The Limits to Growth", which warned raw materials would run out but proved wrong as new sources and solutions were found.
The text says the problem with such predictions is that past developments are simply projected into the future, forgetting that people respond to problems and adapt. Humanity has developed differently from what was calculated 66 years ago.
Source: Euronews. Read the original report ↗