A famous study published in 1960 used a mathematical formula to calculate that humankind would end on Friday 13 November 2026. The article titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026" was written by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team in the journal Science.
The researchers analysed historical data on the world population over two millennia and fitted a growth curve to it. Their projection was that if the growth rate at the time were extrapolated unchanged, the curve would reach an infinite value in November 2026. The mathematicians concluded that humanity would mathematically crush itself through overpopulation.
The study caused a worldwide stir when it was published, which was the authors' intention. By choosing a Friday the 13th, von Foerster wanted to draw attention to the intensely debated issue of overpopulation at the time. Until the early 1990s the curve matched actual figures remarkably well, but global population growth subsequently slowed significantly.
Global population growth reached its fastest rate in 1963 at more than two per cent per year, falling below one per cent by 2020. United Nations estimates suggest the number of people on Earth will peak in the mid-2080s at about 10.3 billion before slowly declining.
History contains many previous failed doomsday predictions, including widespread panic over Halley's Comet in 1910 and a US radio preacher's prediction of Judgement Day for 21 May 2011. A cycle of the Mayan calendar also sparked fears of the end of the world on 21 December 2012, while the 1972 study Limits to Growth incorrectly warned that vital raw materials would soon run out.
The fundamental flaw in such predictions is that past trends are simply projected into the future while overlooking human adaptation. Because humanity has developed differently from what was calculated 66 years ago, people waiting for the end of the world on Friday will be disappointed.
Source: Euronews. Read the original report ↗