Germany's leadership reacted quickly to last week's US mid-term elections, which delivered a landslide Democratic victory dubbed a 'blue wave', though views on the impact for Germany were mixed. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed hope that a Democrat-led Congress might take more initiative in funding and supporting Ukraine's defence, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz tempered expectations, suggesting President Donald Trump's foreign policy aims and tactics were unlikely to change.
Jeffrey Rathke, President of the German-American Institute, told The Local that specific outcomes from the shift in Congressional majorities cannot be certain. He identified two key factors: how assertively Democratic majorities in the House and Senate wield control over budget decisions, including the threat of a government shutdown to influence the Trump administration, and which issues Democrats prioritise. On Ukraine, which Germany considers key to its own security, Rathke said restoring US military supplies "could be an uphill battle", though Congress "may be able to pressure the administration to ensure that the flow of arms provided through the European-financed PURL program will be restored to normal." He added that any Trump administration attempts "to force an unfair settlement on Ukraine to the advantage of Russia are likely to generate intense Congressional attention."
Regarding broader European defence, Rathke noted the current Republican-led Congress recently passed a National Defence Authorization Act mandating that US troop numbers in Europe not fall below 76,000 and that the US continue to provide the Supreme Allied Commander Europe within NATO military leadership. He said these pro-NATO positions have broad bipartisan support. The incoming Democrat-led Congress is expected to monitor the Department of Defence's posture review and use legislative and budgetary tools to limit any indication the Trump administration might weaken US support for European security. "Congress cannot dictate policy to the President," Rathke said. "But they can make it very difficult, and if they choose they can make the administration pay a high price on issues that have public support."
On US-German trade policy and tariffs, a Democrat-led legislature may have limited leverage. The executive branch has accumulated significant trade authorities, and Trump has pushed the boundaries with his tariff policies. "Congress may try to reclaim its tariff authorities, but that would depend on legislation, which Trump would likely veto," Rathke said. Congress could attempt to limit tariff powers within "must-pass" legislation like the budget, but any such move would be hotly contested "since Trump sees the tariff instrument as one of the most effective in his toolbox." Rathke noted US courts have also stepped in to limit some of Trump's asserted powers over the past year.
Beyond immediate relations, Rathke highlighted a growing "asymmetric trust gap" between the US and Europe, prompting German military expansion and European questions about reliance on US software and tech. However, he sees "strong public support on both sides of the Atlantic for cooperation". The midterm results underscore "that nothing is inevitable in American politics, but that principle applies not only to the party balance but also to the political priorities in the US." Rathke pointed to defence production, overlooked in recent years and increasingly important as munitions are depleted in the Iran war, as practical grounds for strengthening cooperation with allies, an initiative Democrats would likely support. "Hedging will remain important for Europe," he said.
Source: The Local. Read the original report ↗